in less than 22 years, by procreation only. So much for either the intelligence or the candour of their demonstrations. Just upon this principle do they proceed in calculating the natural increase of the whole American and Russian population. Accessions of territory and inhabitants are totally overlooked. Quite as convincing a method of demonstrating the "power of population" is it, as though, in estimating English increase by procreation only, I were at once to take the population of British Hindostan into the account. (11) It may seem superfluous to pursue the subject; but in dealing with an argument which is perpetually appealing to futurity, it is perhaps necessary to do so. Calculating, then, the increase by the ratio that has prevailed during the last thirty years, a hundred years hence, there would be, in Rhode Island, somewhat above 300,000 inhabitants, or about half the number on the square mile that there is now in England: whereas, reckoning from the date with which the theorists commence, their ratio threatens them with a population of more than six hundred millions at that, comparatively speaking, early period. (12) I had constructed a table, in which was collected all the information accessible to me, shewing that, with respect to this State, the ratios so much referred to ought to be reversed; inasmuch as, during the period in question, the population had increased only arithmetically, while the elements, or at least the indications, of plenty and prosperity had actually multiplied geometrically. The results were curious enough; they are, however, omitted, as superfluous to the general argument. (13) As to the assertion, that the period of duplication in the back settlements, from procreation only, was only fifteen years, that will be dealt with in the first chapter in the ensuing Book, in which the possibility of that, and far more extended terms, will be distinctly disproved. (14) Thus, then, is it, that these particular States prove, by the force of incontrovertible facts, directly the contrary to that for which they are appealed to, No error was ever more great or palpable, though, it is true, none was ever more tenaciously maintained, or more frequently asserted, than that any of them have ever continued to double their numbers by procreation only, or indeed by any other means, in the slowest rate mentioned, or indeed in any geometrical ratio whatsoever. I am well aware of the way in which the force of the, otherwise inevitable, conclusion is evaded : though, in a system which maintains that emigration has little or no effect, either in ultimately lessening the community it leaves, or in increasing that to which it proceeds, it must be rather tacitly relied on, than ostensibly put forth. Nearly a hundred years ago, it will be hereafter seen, another reason, for the comparatively slow rate of increase then visible, was put forth. Now, when explained at all, it is exclusively attributed to emigration to the newer States. That this may have had some influence, I will not dispute; but that it has occasioned an effect to cease which never existed, be confidently denied. It is rather amusing may to see to what shifts some of the American assertors of the natural increase of the population of their respective States are put, when accounting for the facts to which I have been adverting. For instance, Mr. Warden, speaking of Connecticut, explains the circumstance in reference to that province, by stating, that at least from 12,000 to 15,000 persons emigrate annually thence to the other territories of the Union1. In other words, admitting the correctness of another statement of his, that in that prolific region there is annually one birth to every twenty inhabitants, he informs us that, annually, many thousand more individuals emigrate from that State, than arrive at the age of discretion, nay, than are even born in it! An opinion, nevertheless, more reasonable than others of his, upon the same subject, that will be hereafter noticed. On similar absurdities are the whole of these pretended demonstrations founded. (15) But supposing, for a moment, that, in one and the same country, emigration shall have no perceptible effect on the population, and yet migration a most powerful one, and allowing the argument to be transferred from the States selected as its proofs, but in which it has totally failed, to all the original States of the Union, even then the geometric ratio of increase cannot be substantiated. The population in these old States (including Vermont and Maine) was, in 1790, 3,070,102; in 1800, 3,975,667; in 1810, 4,962,461; and in 1820, 6,010,4663: giving, therefore, an increase, in the first period, of 29 per centum; in the second, of 25; and in the last, of 21 per centum; or multiplying in the first at a rate which would double the numbers in 27 years, in the second in 31 years, and in the third in 36 years. (16) Nay, if we give the argument such a latitude as to render it ridiculous, transferring the computation to the utmost extent of the Union, include in it all the late cessions, both of territory and inhabitants from whatever country, and drop, in its progress, all 1 Warden, Statistical Account of the United States, vol. ii., p. 10. 2 Mr. Warden makes the population in Connecticut, when he wrote, to be 255,179. Vol.ii., p. 10. 3 National Calendars. recollection of the emigrations whence the newer provinces have almost exclusively sprung, still the theory fails. There were, of white inhabitants, in the whole of the United States in 1790, 3,093,111; in 1800, 4,309,656; in 1810, 5,862,093; and in 1820, 7,861,7101. The increase, in the first term, being 39 per cent.; that in the second, 36 per cent.; and that in the third and last, 33 per cent. It is superfluous to say, that it is utterly impossible to deduce the geometric theory of human increase, whatever be the period of duplication, from such terms as these. (17) Hitherto, however, the argument has been pursued in reference to those proofs only, which the advocates of that theory have chosen to select, to the rejection of others of a far more authentic and important character; and still these deductions have been fully disproved. But this mode will be pursued no longer. The facts which have been either suppressed or contradicted, will be brought forward and substantiated; and those which have been misrepresented will be rectified. The early population of New England, which has been so grossly underrated, and that of the colonies generally, which has been carefully overlooked, will be ascertained; and also the existence and extent of emigration to both, which has been denied at one period, and only acknowledged at another-when it was supposed it could be pronounced immaterial—will be enquired into somewhat at large, as most essential to the determination of the entire question. It will then be seen, that the theory of human superfecundity, as founded on the history and progress of American population, is one of the most palpable sophisms that ever imposed upon the understanding, or deadened the feelings of mankind. National Calendars. 414 CHAPTER III. OF THE ERRONEOUS STATEMENTS RELATIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF THE EARLY POPULATION OF AMERICA. THAT OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ASCERTAINED. (1) MR. Townsend and Mr. Malthus, copying from Dr. Price, and the latter from Dr. Styles and Dr. Franklin, have asserted that the period of doubling, from natural causes only, is, and has been, in the New England States of North America, twenty-five years only. With the latter writers this opinion was a pardonable, if not a praiseworthy, error; inasmuch as it was adopted to favour their views regarding the multiplication of human beings, which they identified with the increase of universal happiness: as it regards the former, they seized upon the same supposition for a diametrically opposite purpose, to prove that inevitable evils result from the principle of population, and the consequent necessity of checking its progress; views which have not infested the philosophy of the country merely, but its policy and humanity. Hence the necessity of refuting notions which might otherwise have been suffered to remain unquestioned amongst innumerable other visionary speculations, which, while evincing, perhaps, the weakness, have still more exalted the moral excellence, of the human mind, by displaying its enthusiastic and restless benevolence. The fundamental principles of policy and religion are, however, changed, and human |